Nigeria’s Current Account Surplus Drops 41% in Q3 2025 Despite Oil Export Surge

 January 1, 2026

Nigeria’s external balance position remained in positive territory during the third quarter of 2025, though the margin narrowed significantly. According to the latest Balance of Payments (BoP) report from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the nation’s current account surplus fell to $3.42 billion in Q3 2025—a sharp 41.14% decline from the $5.81 billion recorded in the preceding quarter.

While a surplus indicates that Nigeria continues to earn more foreign currency than it spends, the narrowing gap highlights growing structural pressures, including rising service costs and increased income repatriation by foreign investors.

The current account is a vital indicator of a country’s economic health, tracking the net flow of goods, services, and income.

• The Goods Account: Remained the primary driver of the surplus at $4.94 billion. This was bolstered by a 10.31% rise in crude oil exports ($8.45 billion) and a remarkable 44% surge in refined petroleum exports ($2.29 billion).

• Refined Fuel Shift: For the first time in decades, Nigeria is seeing a structural shift. Imports of refined petroleum products fell by 12.7%, signaling the growing impact of domestic refining capacity.

• The Services & Income Deficit: The primary reason for the overall drop in the surplus was the widening deficit in the services and primary income accounts. Net service payments (travel, transport, and ICT) rose to $4.07 billion, while the primary income account saw a massive debit of $2.95 billion, largely due to the repatriation of earnings by foreign entities.

Despite the volatility in trade, diaspora remittances remained a bedrock of stability. The secondary income account recorded a surplus of $5.50 billion, with workers’ remittances contributing $5.24 billion. This steady inflow of foreign exchange continues to cushion the naira and support the country’s external buffers.

The drop in the surplus sends a mixed signal to the markets. On one hand, the rise in local refining and oil exports suggests “real sector” growth. On the other hand, the high rate of profit repatriation and service-related outflows shows that Nigeria remains heavily dependent on foreign expertise and capital, which can be easily withdrawn.

As of the end of September 2025, Nigeria’s external reserves stood at a healthy $42.77 billion, up from $37.81 billion in June. However, analysts warn that sustaining this position will require more than just oil sales; it will require a more aggressive push into non-oil exports and a reduction in the “service drain.”