Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast to 3.4% Upgrades-IMF

Abuja, Nigeria – In a significant boost to Nigeria’s economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its projection for the country’s economic growth to 3.4% for 2025. This revised forecast, detailed in the IMF’s latest July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, reflects a 0.4 percentage point increase from its earlier April projection of 3.0%.

The upward revision signals a renewed optimism regarding Nigeria’s near-term economic prospects, even amidst prevailing global uncertainties and ongoing domestic macroeconomic challenges. The IMF’s report, titled “Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty,” also projects Nigeria’s growth to be 3.2% in 2026, a 0.5 percentage point increase from its previous 2.7% forecast for that year.

This positive adjustment by the IMF comes on the heels of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting a 3.13% growth in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2025, an improvement from the 2.27% recorded in the same period in 2024. The IMF attributes this upgraded outlook to a broader improvement in the global economic landscape, driven by more favorable financial conditions, a temporary easing in tariff pressures, and resilient trade activity.

While Nigeria’s projected growth of 3.4% in 2025 places it ahead of South Africa (forecasted at 1.0%), it still trails the broader Sub-Saharan African region’s average growth, which is expected to be 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.

This upgrade is a welcome development, reflecting the positive impact of recent economic reforms and increased oil production. However, experts continue to emphasize the need for sustained structural and institutional reforms, particularly in areas like power supply and fiscal management, to ensure robust and inclusive growth that can effectively tackle poverty and improve living standards for all Nigerians.